… but did they cut the projections enough???
My previous post discussed Warner revising its projections for high definition DVD. Even after that, a Motley Fool writer thinks the new numbers are still too high. He states that Warner’s revised projections are based on the assumption that consumers will adopt the new technology faster than they did the original DVD players. That, in turn, was the fastest-ever ramp-up of a consumer electronics platform in history. The Walkman, the VHS player, CDs, none of these could hold a candle to the early success of DVDs.
PlayStation 3 is supposed to ship within a month now, and Sony is hoping that it will elevate Blu-ray to a common household items, but forecasts indicate low volumes, and we know the console will be very expensive. Microsoft went the other way with its high-definition support, and has yet to launch its $200 add-on HD DVD player for the Xbox 360. The Redmond giant doesn’t appear comfortable with the HD market prospects just yet.
Sure high definition DVD looks great, but will inspire millions of us to spend up to $1000 on a first-generation set-top box that can only play one of the two competing formats? Pick the losing format and you’ll end up buying another player in a couple of years. It’s VHS vs. Betamax all over again. That’s hardly the stuff of sales-record legend, and I’d be surprised to see more than a few hundred million in high-definition electronics sales this year, even with the holiday season yet to come.
With a format war and so many technical complications, the Motley Fool prefers Disney‘s slower wait-and-see approach to Warner spending a lot of money hitting both platforms from the start with high profile titles and interactive features.